Who's for the drop?

Playmaker's John Townley considers which Premier League clubs most resemble relegation fodder - and which are showing signs that they can haul themselves clear of the drop zone. 

Whose goose is cooked? Whose top flight race is run? Whose terrible Anne Robinson parodies are tiresome...? Read on for some fascinating insights into what may lie in store. 

It’s safe to say this year’s Premier League relegation battle is going down to the wire. Norwich, Watford and West Ham all currently occupy the bottom three with Aston Villa, Bournemouth and Brighton all failing to escape the fight in recent weeks.

In the past five top-flight seasons, on average 36 points would steer you away from the trap door. In the past three years, 35, 34 and 35 points would’ve see you a point better than 18th place, and by this logic, most of the teams scrapping for survival need points… and quick.

In this article, we evaluate the survival chances of the teams begrudgingly involved in what will become no doubt an enthralling race to beat the drop.

©Getty / Malcolm Couzens

Norwich City

The pressure on Norwich to stay in the Premier League is far less than what it is in comparison to West Ham and Aston Villa, for instance. Working within their strict financial means, Daniel Farke’s Canaries will not be financially struck to the extent of other clubs who have spent in excess of £100m this season. They have less to lose, in this sense, and that could prove an advantage.

It’s worth noting that Norwich have also been locked inside the bottom three since September and the thought of slipping through the trap door is not a sudden realisation.

Hosting Southampton, Brighton, West Ham, Burnley all at home from now until May, the Carrow Road club could make their home a fortress to surprise a few, as they did against Manchester City at the start of the season.

Norwich remain seven points from safety, and will require at least 17 points to survive, according to previous Premier League tables.

©Getty / Clive Brunskill

Watford

Nigel Pearson’s instant bounce at Vicarage Road seems to have run its course with his side unable to win in their last six. Liverpool are up next for the Hornets, and Watford need to pick up some home points having only won three times on their own turf this term.

Five wins on the road has kept Watford in contention to beat the drop, and coupled with the recent upturn in form from Abdoulaye Doucouré and Gerard Deulofeu, Pearson will look towards home ties with Southampton, Norwich and Newcastle to save their once doomed season.

However, history points a bony finger at a grisly reality for Watford. Only three sides that were bottom of the Premier League at Christmas have stayed up since 1992. Even more worryingly, of the 82 teams to be in the relegation zone at that point in a season, only 46% have survived.

If there’s a manager to keep them in the top-flight, not many have a better record than Pearson though. The former Leicester manager made the greatest of great escapes with the Foxes back in 2015, and whilst at West Brom, Pearson guided the Hawthorns club away from danger in the 2004-2005 season.

The return of Ismaila Sarr is a timely one with key battles at Crystal Palace and West Ham to come in the not-too-distant future.

©Getty / Clive Brunskill

West Ham

It’s turned into the season that all West Ham fans knew would eventually come, but after splashing over £100m this season, the dawn of a bright new decade has turned into a dystopian relegation scrap. 

It’s a real possibility that the Hammers could be playing Championship football at the London Stadium next season having amassed only 24 points in 27 games this season. Mismanagement from the top appears to be a major factor in West Ham’s demise but a glaring lack of quality on the pitch has seen the Hammers fail to win in the Premier League since the beginning of January (against what was a poor Bournemouth side).

It’s relatively hard to envisage West Ham climbing out of danger with a manager who has already spent his new managerial bounce last season - David Moyes’ appointment at the London Stadium was always going to turn heads. With a tricky fixture list the main source of worry at West Ham, the natives will grow restless if points are dropped against Southampton in their next home match.

Southampton, Burnley, Watford and Aston Villa, on the final day, all come to Moyes’ Hammers in what are all must win games for the relegation threatened club. Neither goals scored nor goals conceded are the worst in the league, but there are equally no positives to be drawn from these two barometers of success.

The Hammers look a good bet to be blowing Championship-shaped bubbles next season. 

©Getty / Visionhaus

Aston Villa

Despite starting the season with a spring in their step after reclaiming their top flight status through the play-offs last season, Aston Villa have since walked into a relegation battle that they must stay clear of come May.

Having shipped the most goals in the league (52) after a recent loss to Southampton, Dean Smith’s Villa are losing too many football matches to remain in the Premier League. All hopes are rightly pinned on club talisman, boyhood fan and skipper Jack Grealish. That’s a a lot of pressure for a young man. 

Villa have however scored more than nine teams in the league, including high flyers Sheffield United and Burnley, as Grealish’s influence has told. Mbwana Ally Samatta too looks in good form having scored on his Premier League debut. An offside goal ruled out his second in three, but the imminent return of John McGinn will be huge for a Villa side lacking in impetus and morale.

Injuries have marred Villa’s first season back in the top fight after a three year exile, with Tom Heaton and record signing Wesley both ruled out for the season. Pepe Reina’s leadership will help a backline that is conceding far too many goals, but ultimately Villa must make the most of their decent home form.

Having won more at home than any of their relegation threatened counterparts, Villa Park will have to take a scalp or two as Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal all come to the second city in the coming weeks.

The Villans' recent form is not sustainable if they are to remain in the Premier League and Dean Smith will know a change of system and/or formation could hold the key to gaining points on the rest. A wing back system had worked initially, and indeed helped to set up a Carabao Cup final this weekend, but another alteration may be due as opposing sides start to work Villa out.

©Getty / James Gill - Danehouse

Bournemouth

The fairytale could nearly be over. But with £240m splashed out in transfers since their Championship promotion in 2015, Eddie Howe’s Cherries boast a huge net spend with little to show for their investments this season.

Perilously close to the dreaded trap door, Bournemouth sit in 18th place having lost 12 of their last 16 Premier League games. Injuries haven’t helped their cause, with Nathan Ake, Steve Cook and Callum Wilson all serving time away from first team action at some point in a season that promised much, but has only provided cause for concern as Howe’s side looks over its shoulder.

Crystal Palace, Newcastle and Southampton - who are all also looking to take enough points to hit the traditionally heralded ’40 points’ mark - travel to the Vitality after Bournemouth face tricky trips themselves, at Liverpool, Wolves and Manchester City.

©Getty / 5021154

Brighton

After taking a vital point at The Amex on Saturday, Graham Potter’s Seagull’s are only a couple wins away from securing Premier League football next season.

Nine points should see Brighton safe this season, and with home ties against Palace and Newcastle on the horizon, the pressure is off the South Coast club for now. One win in 12 is the stat that will most concern fans about a Seagulls side that has drawn the third most games this season in the top flight.

Converting a precious point into all three would make all the difference to their survival chances, but goals have been hard to come by in past months with Neal Maupay only ending a nine match drought last weekend. The Frenchman has carried much of Brighton’s goalscoring burden this term and his contributions to Brighton’s last 11 games will be pivotal.

Failing to capitalise on a nice looking set of fixtures against Villa, Bournemouth, West Ham and Watford before Saturday's stalemate at Sheffield United will test the mettle of Brighton’s side - but coming from behind to take a point in each of the last three games is a good indication that they have what it takes to navigate their way to safety. 

🖐 more days. 🏆#AVFC pic.twitter.com/4U0e0ebTAv

— Aston Villa (@AVFCOfficial) February 25, 2020