Seagulls are silencing their xG doubters

For those familiar with the xG (Expected Goals) performance metric, Brighton and Hove Albion were one of the stories of last season - the Seagulls scoring considerably less goals than the fast-growing predictive model suggested they would.

The data seemed to point to a side whose results often lagged behind their performances.

However, Brighton appear to have learned lessons from last term. They currently sit fourth in the Premier League and progressed smoothly to the Fourth Round of the Carabao Cup on Wednesday night with a 2-0 win over manager Graham Potter's former employers Swansea. All in all, it's been an impressive start to the 2021/22 campaign.

In this article, Playmaker writer Louis Bent runs the rule over the Seagulls to gauge whether their xG nightmare is behind them, and consider how high the bar is for Potter's side this season. 

At the end of the previous Premier League campaign, Brighton and Hove Albion were the butt of planty of wisecracks regarding the ‘Expected Goals’ statistics. Although they finished 16th in the top-flight table, scoring 40 goals, Brighton's expected points should - on the merits of the xG model -  have seen them finish in a Europa League place; an alternate reality that left many Seagulls supporters perplexed and frustrated.

Graham Potter’s coaching ability and innovative techniques still won praise from sections of the media despite Brighton's lower than expected league finish. The former Östersunds FK manager was tipped for the vacant Spurs job during the summer and with the Seagulls currently flying high in the top flight, it’s becoming clear why.

Striking out

©Premier League

In the wake of 2020/21, it was widely expected that the Amex Stadium would see a new centre forward roll into town after the striking issues that were apparent last season.

Their top scorer last season was Neal Maupay. On the bright side, the Frenchman bagged eight goals last season; on the gloomier side, his xG suggested that a competent striker would have scored 13.4 goals. The stats hinted at a real underperformance by the former Brentford forward, who was also dropped by his manager Potter for an internal incident back in November 2020.

Surprisingly, no new striker materialised and many predicted that Brighton's unresolved attacking issues would bleed into this season.

Think again.

The Seagulls are currently fourth, a place and two points above Pep Guardiola’s defending champions Man City, and with only one loss to their name.

And, very interestingly, the xG issues that afflicted them last season appear to be a thing of the past. 

Brighton are currently sit eighth in the Prem goalscoring charts, picking up seven goals from an xG value of 5.4 – an overperformance of 2.4 goals. Last season, Chelsea and Brighton were the biggest underperformers in xG terms, but the tables have turned so far in 2021/22. 

Pressing pragmatists

Let's dig slightly deeper. Last season, Brighton saw slightly less of the ball with an average of 51.3% possession. In contrast, this season they have averaged a solid 56.6% of possession in their first five games.

It's early days, however, and last weekend Brighton reverted to type when they had just 34% of the possession against Leicester City, a matchweek low. The numbers suggest they are pragmatic: aiming to control possession against sides they can dominate and yielding possession against sides they feel they can't.

An element of this Brighton side that has impressed is their pressing, and they currently sit top of the Premier League for the % of pressures that have won the ball back. Brighton have a mighty 31.7% of pressures that resulted in recovery of possession, the best in the division.

Having the ability to win the ball back effectively and squeeze the spaces between the lines is imperative for any side in the modern game, and Brighton's performances this season suggest they are mastering the art. 

©Getty / David Davies - PA Images

As mentioned, it's early days - but Graham Potter’s side have certainly started with a vim and vigour that suggests they have learned lessons and are evolving.

With technical director Dan Ashworth pulling strings in the background and Potter winning a reputation as one of the brightest English coaches in the game, the future looks bright for Brighton...and their xG statistics! 

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