25/04 - 20:00
The stat ‘expected goals’ (xG) splits opinion like no other statistic.
The cliché argument would be between the traditional ‘proper football men’ claiming it to be irrelevant due to the score line being the only thing that counts. Thus missing the point and going on to say ‘although Team A were unlucky’. It is simply a stat that can be used to quantify that, until now, qualitative view.
They would come up against the cliché ‘football hipster’ looking to be able to develop a way of thinking and analysing football. This can often lead to pretentious dismissals of other viewpoints because of what the cold, hard data says; often ignoring the limitations or faults within the collected data.
Despite that footballing culture war, and with many arguments against the use of expected goals being valid, it can often be a very useful metric for larger sample sizes like the course of a season to see who is overperforming and underperforming. Helping to determine which teams should improve and which teams might fall off as the season goes on.
This is a look at what the data for xG, xGA (expected goals against) and xP (expected points) says across Europe’s six major European leagues.
BUNDESLIGA
Overperformers | Eintracht Frankfurt in 8th by 6.04 points
Underperformers | RB Leipzig in 9th by 6.92 points
LA LIGA
Overperformers | Sevilla in 2nd by 12.77 points
Underperformers | Levante in 20th by 14.38 points
LIGUE 1
Overperformers | Paris Saint-Germain in 1st by 5.92 points
Underperformers | Lille in 10th by 8.5 points
PREMIER LEAGUE
Overperformers | Leicester City in 10th by 4.62 points
Underperformers | Crystal Palace in 12th by 8.05 points
SERIE A
Overperformers | Milan in 2nd by 11.09 points
Underperformers | Cagliari in 18th by 5.43 points
