Championship play-off final preview: Luton Town 

Both viewed as underdogs to even make the Championship play-offs this season, Luton Town and Coventry go head-to-head at Wembley this Saturday with a place in the Premier League up for grabs. 

It promises to be a high-octane encounter between two sides that have punched above their weight for some considerable time. 

This article aims to dig into Luton's numbers from this season to identify their strengths and weaknesses, and profile their key men going into a contest estimated to be worth in the region of £200 million to the winner.

Be sure to check out our separate article digging into Coventry's stats. 

From strength to strength

The dark horse in last season's Championship promotion race under Nathan Jones, the Hatters finished sixth in the second tier to make the 2021/22 play-offs where they lost in the semis to Huddersfield Town. 

When Jones left Kenilworth Road for an ill-fated stint in the top flight with Southampton, Luton were ninth in the Championship – so reaching the play-offs again was more of a hope than an expectation when Rob Edwards took the reins fresh from his own ill-fated stint at Watford.  

Despite the Hatters going four without a win initially under Edwards, the Welshman has guided them superbly since succeeding his compatriot Jones. 

Losing just once in the league, to champions Burnley, in the regular season under Edwards, Luton have retained their gritty defensive edge and desire for front foot football after the managerial change and having finished third – 10 points above Coventry – they enter Saturday's play-off final as slight favourites (currently 7/5 with Paddy Power). 

🥇Most Championship clean sheets in 22/23 (inc. P/Os):

22⛔️: BEN WILSON
20⛔️: Ethan Horvath
17⛔️: Arijanet Muric, Wes Foderingham, Freddie Woodman#PUSB pic.twitter.com/8h6BEg6Gsy

— playmakerstats (@playmaker_EN) May 18, 2023

Strengths and weaknesses

Here are a bunch of pros and a few cons on the Hatters...

They're defensively sound.  Only Burnley (35)  and Sheffield United (39) shipped fewer goals in the second tier than Luton (41) this season with only Vincent Kompany's Clarets (21) keeping more clean sheets than the Hatters' 20. 

They've excelled on the road. Wembley may well be a neutral venue in this case, but Luton's form on the road should give them cause for optimism. The Hatters won 41 points of their 80 league points away from Kenilworth Road in the regular season.

 They love to strike early. Luton have scored more Championship goals in the first 15 minutes of games than any team: 15. Having conceded only eight in the same time-frame, a goal difference of +7 in the early stages suggests Coventry (who have a negative G7D of -5 during this period) will need to be on their mettle from the first whistle. 

They have an X-factor. Luton have swung in more accurate crosses (278) than any team in the Championship this season. Their quality from wide areas will be a threat when Saturday comes.

📊Played in each of the top four tiers (fr. 2000):

⭐️Blackpool
⭐️Bolton
⭐️Bournemouth
⭐️Bradford
⭐️Brentford
⭐️Brighton
⭐️Cardiff
⭐️Coventry
⭐️Huddersfield
⭐️Hull
⭐️Portsmouth
⭐️Swansea

❓Will @Coventry_City prevent @LutonTown joining the list?#COYH #PUSB #EFLPlayOffs pic.twitter.com/WDRQAMOOZX

— playmakerstats (@playmaker_EN) May 18, 2023

Living on the edge. Only Burnley (98) and Hull (95) were flagged offside more than Luton this season. This shows a willingness and insistence to play on the shoulder of defenders and a desire to get in behind, which can definitely cause problems. A well-marshalled defence could well be a source of some frustration though. 

Penalty jitters? Sheffield United may have been the only side not to convert a penalty in the Championship this season, but Luton weren't much better off – scoring just one of the three spot-kicks they were awarded in the second tier this season. A 33% conversion rate won't inspire huge confidence if the play-off final ends with a shoot-out from 12 yards.

The concede a lot of free-kicks. A whopping 604 free-kicks have been awarded against Luton during the course of the Championship season, more than any team. They have also received four red cards during the 22/23 campaign to date and Rob Edwards will need to make sure his side's discipline is bang on at Wembley.

Key men

A tight unit that are, in many ways, a sum greater than the total of their parts, Luton have had consistent players all over the park this season. 

However, in terms of key men, we'll let you check out the Hatters players to make our 'Playmaker 72' this season: Tom Lockyer and Carlton Morris. Hope you enjoy their profiles!